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News & Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight, 538, ESPN, Nate Silver

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Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
Are Voters Sexist?

53:20 | Jun 3rd

The crew discusses what we know about how voters respond to female candidates and how the women running for president in 2020 are navigating questions about their identity.
Special Episode: Chasing Hillary

34:06 | May 10th, 2018

Nate Silver and Clare Malone sit down Amy Chozick, the author of "Chasing Hillary: Ten Years, Two Presidential Campaigns, and One Intact Glass Ceiling."
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona

39:31 | Dec 21st, 2017

The number of competitive congressional elections has fallen dramatically in recent decades. Arizona tried to combat that trend.
The Gerrymandering Project: Wisconsin

38:28 | Dec 7th, 2017

Is partisan gerrymandering illegal? In the second installment of our gerrymandering series we look at a Supreme Court case that could reshape how we draw political boundaries.
The Gerrymandering Project: Intro

30:19 | Nov 30th, 2017

What is gerrymandering? This is the first episode in a six-part series exploring the effects of gerrymandering and how reformers hope to change the system.
White House Chaos

51:29 | Jul 31st, 2017

The team breaks down the latest White House staffing shakeups and asks how Chief of Staff John Kelly might correct course amid the chaos.
How Much Does Iowa Matter?

58:08 | Aug 12th

Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
"The Best Pollster In Politics"

34:19 | Aug 8th

Ann Selzer, who conducts the "Iowa Poll" and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.
Can Trump's Words Incite Violence?

53:19 | Aug 5th

The podcast team discusses the weekend's mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.
Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates

1:11:41 | Aug 2nd

The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.
Democrats Battle It Out

34:22 | Jul 31st

The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.
Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?

54:07 | Jul 29th

The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats' next steps on impeachment.
Mueller Talks

36:48 | Jul 24th

After months of back-and-forth with Democrats, former special counsel Robert Mueller testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Wednesday.
Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy

59:02 | Jul 22nd

The podcast crew discusses the role that racial resentment played in the 2016 and 2018 elections and debates whether Trump could use it to his advantage in 2020.
Who's Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020?

38:37 | Jul 18th

The podcast heads to Pennsylvania to discuss the state's political trends and what they mean for 2020.
Trump's Racist Tweet

54:27 | Jul 15th

The podcast team discusses Trump's tweets attacking a group of congresswomen of color. They also debate the odds of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kentucky.
Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell

35:27 | Jul 11th

Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the presidential race this week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
Is Biden Still The Front-Runner?

47:56 | Jul 8th

The podcast crew debates whether Joe Biden is still the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. They also discuss Rep. Justin Amash's decision to leave the GOP.
The Verdict On The Debates

1:02:06 | Jul 1st

The podcast crew digs into data about how voters reacted to the first debates. They also discuss the new sexual assault accusation against President Trump.
Harris Wins Narrative. We'll See About The Voters.

37:30 | Jun 28th

The crew reacts to night two of the first Democratic primary debates.
What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate

35:46 | Jun 27th

The podcast team reacts to night one of the first Democratic primary debates.
Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary

51:22 | Jun 24th

The crew re-assesses the significance of "lanes" in the Democratic primary and looks at Trump's Iran strategy.
What's At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions

38:21 | Jun 21st

Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to discuss key decisions the Supreme Court has made so far, and what is at stake in the final 12 cases.
Who Is Persuadable In 2020?

53:21 | Jun 17th

As Trump kicks off his reelection campaign, the crew debates who is persuadable in 2020. They also discuss the Democratic primary debate lineups.
A Republican Strategist's Guide To 2020

44:48 | Jun 13th

Republican strategist and pollster Bill McInturff joins the podcast to discuss his report, "What Republicans Need to Know as We Move Toward the 2020 Election."
Is Elizabeth Warren Surging?

51:47 | Jun 10th

The crew examines whether the popular narrative of Elizabeth Warren's breakthrough is reflected in the data. They also discuss why Joe Biden backtracked on the Hyde Amendment.
The D.C. Statehood Episode

39:19 | Jun 6th

Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer join the podcast to discuss Democrats' efforts to make D.C. the nation's 51st state.
Are Nationalist Victories Around The World Connected?

33:41 | May 31st

University of Cambridge professors Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss what appear to be a string of similar outcomes in elections around the world.
Is Pelosi's Trump Strategy Working?

40:53 | May 28th

The crew discusses whether last week's back-and-forth between Pelosi and Trump achieved its reported goal. They also look at head-to-head polling in the Democratic primary.
What We Can Learn From Tracking Trump's Falsehoods

30:22 | May 23rd

The Washington Post has been tracking every false or misleading claim Trump has made while in office. In this episode, we dig into the database.
Have Americans Changed Their Minds On Abortion?

59:17 | May 20th

The politics team examines Bill de Blasio's theory of the case, the rationale behind seemingly conflicting numbers on abortion and ask if Democrats can win the Senate in 2020.
Why Some States Are Passing New Abortion Restrictions

27:38 | May 16th

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed the most restrictive abortion law in recent U.S. history into law on Wednesday. It's part of a larger trend of changing state level abortion law.
The Politics Of Impeaching Trump

45:45 | May 13th

The crew debates the possible political repercussions for Democrats of moving to impeach Trump. They also look at how some on the left have tried to discredit a CNN poll.
Live From Houston: What Happened To The Bush GOP?

1:13:39 | May 9th

In a live taping from Houston, Texas, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed from the party of Bush to the party of Trump. They also play a 2020 primary draft.
Live From Austin: Will Texas Be A Battleground In 2020?

56:03 | May 7th

The crew is in Austin, Texas, where they debate whether the Lone Star State will be a battleground in 2020. They also play a heated round of trivia.
Mueller's Letter To Barr

28:14 | May 1st

Special Counsel Mueller wrote AG Barr a letter expressing concerns about how he'd characterized the report's findings to Congress. The podcast crew reacts.
Peto Buttichar 2020

48:20 | Apr 29th

The crew discusses the Democratic Party's reaction to Joe Biden entering the presidential race. They also ask why Sanders and Warren don't have more crossover support.
How Joe Biden Could Win

33:18 | Apr 25th

Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. The crew discusses the reasons he could win the nomination or come up short.
We Have The Mueller Report. Now What?

50:39 | Apr 22nd

The crew discusses how the various players are positioning themselves now that the Mueller report is public. Plus, the Democratic primary field expanded again.
Emergency Podcast: The Mueller Report

45:02 | Apr 18th

The podcast team reacts to the release of the redacted Mueller report.
The State Of The Democratic Primary

47:42 | Apr 15th

As the first quarter of 2019 comes to a close, the crew gives an assessment of state of the 2020 Democratic primary.
How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?

30:49 | Apr 11th

Our "Model Talk" series returns briefly to discuss the performance of FiveThirtyEight's forecast models over the past decade. We crunched the numbers and the results are in!
Do Democrats Want An Outsider In 2020?

54:51 | Apr 8th

The crew debates the appeal of a political outsider for Democrats in 2020. They also look at the class divide among white voters how that affects their political behavior.
The Electoral College Episode

41:24 | Apr 4th

Julia Azari and Seth Masket join the podcast to discuss the arguments for and against the Electoral College and how likely it is to actually change.
What Will Biden Do?

43:59 | Apr 1st

Joe Biden has been accused of inappropriately touching a former legislator at a campaign event. Will that change his calculus about whether to get in the race?
Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering?

57:44 | Mar 28th

Mathematician Moon Duchin joins Nate Silver and Galen Druke to discuss a method for spotting partisan gerrymandering that the Supreme Court considered Tuesday.
Life After The Mueller Report

50:08 | Mar 25th

The crew reacts to the principal findings of the Mueller report, according to Attorney General Bill Barr.
Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report

13:02 | Mar 22nd

In this emergency podcast, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to discuss what comes next now that Special Counsel Mueller has filed his report.
Live From NY: It's A 2020 Draft!

1:04:39 | Mar 21st

In a live taping of the podcast, the crew competes in a draft of the 2020 primary candidates. They also play "Good Use of Polling or Bad Use of Polling?"
Ranking 2020 Rollouts

42:56 | Mar 18th

The crew takes stock of which candidates have done the best job introducing themselves in the early months of the primary.
The Moment Of Truth For Brexit

38:01 | Mar 15th

David Runciman and Helen Thompson from the British "Talking Politics" podcast discuss the week in Brexit and what comes next.
How Beto O'Rourke Could Win

34:27 | Mar 14th

Former El Paso congressman Beto O'Rourke is running for president. The crew discusses how he could win -- or lose -- the Democratic primary.
How Divided Are Democrats?

51:09 | Mar 11th

The podcast crew analyzes the divisions within the Democratic Party and makes sense of why potential 2020 candidates like Sherrod Brown decided not to run.
Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell

30:52 | Mar 7th

Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Why do those four states vote first and does the lineup make sense?
Should We Cancel The Electoral College?

49:59 | Mar 4th

The podcast crew discusses the latest candidate announcements, whether party endorsements matter, and the merits of the Electoral College.
What We Learned From Cohen's Testimony

30:16 | Feb 28th

The podcast team reacts to a day of testimony from President Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen.
Our Best (Or Worst) Show

45:42 | Feb 25th

The podcast crew discusses absentee ballot fraud in North Carolina and the threat of a primary challenge to Trump. They also play a round of "Guess What Americans Think."
All The President's Investigations

28:55 | Feb 22nd

The word is that Mueller will wrap up his investigation next week. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux shares an overview of the legal troubles that will continue to follow the president.
How Bernie Sanders Could Win

47:07 | Feb 19th

Sen. Bernie Sanders is running for president. The team describes both his path to success and failure in the primary. They also follow up on Trump's emergency declaration.
National Emergency Podcast

45:34 | Feb 14th

The crew reacts to the news that President Trump plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border. Vox's Dara Lind also joins to discuss the border security deal.
How Amy Klobuchar Could Win

47:41 | Feb 11th

The crew discusses the arguments for and against Sen. Amy Klobuchar winning the Democratic nomination. They also assess the politics of the Green New Deal.
The Mess In Virginia

29:23 | Feb 7th

Democratic politics in Virginia are in upheaval. The team reacts to the scandals facing each of the top three Democrats in the state -- the governor, lt. governor and AG.
The Politics Of Taxing The Rich

36:48 | Feb 4th

Some Democrats are floating new taxes on the super rich. The crew discusses the politics of those proposals. They also assess Cory Booker's path to the nomination.
The Perot Effect

40:19 | Feb 2nd

What effect do third party candidates have in a two party system? This is an audio documentary about Ross Perot and the 1992 election that originally aired in October 2016.
Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz?

34:00 | Jan 31st

In light of Howard Schultz's possible presidential run as a "centrist independent," the crew discusses the appetite for such a candidate among Americans.
Shutdown Lessons (And 2020 Announcements)

52:29 | Jan 28th

The crew discusses the political repercussions of the government shutdown and considers two Democratic presidential contenders -- Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard.
What To Make Of Roger Stone's Indictment

15:02 | Jan 25th

In this installment of Mueller Talk, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux discusses the implications of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone's indictment.
How Kamala Harris Could Win

53:48 | Jan 22nd

The crew analyzes what Harris's path to the nomination could look like. They also react to Mueller's statement on the Buzzfeed report and discuss the role of the young left.
Emergency Podcast: The Suborn Identity

29:30 | Jan 18th

In this emergency installment, the crew reacts to a Buzzfeed News report that President Trump directed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress.
How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win

37:04 | Jan 16th

New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest in the Democratic field to make official moves toward running for president. The crew discusses her case for the nomination. Note: At 17:40, Nate Silver's audio may be a bit unclear. He says, "It's no...Show More
How Julian Castro Could Win

46:29 | Jan 14th

The crew discusses what Julian Castro's path to the Democratic nomination could look like. They also lay out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and talk shutdown.
Will Trump Face A Primary Challenge?

29:36 | Jan 10th

Is Trump in danger of a serious challenge for the Republican nomination in 2020? Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss.
How Elizabeth Warren Could Win

54:53 | Jan 7th

The crew discusses the paths to Elizabeth Warren winning -- and losing -- the 2020 Democratic nomination. They also look at the political repercussions of the shutdown.
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona

38:30 | Dec 31st, 2018

In 2018, more states decided to put independent commissions in charge of redistricting. Arizona serves as an example of some of the challenges those commissions can face.
Our 2018 Politics Awards

56:29 | Dec 24th, 2018

The crew looks back on the year in politics and gives out made up awards. They also share resolutions for 2019.
Emergency Podcast: Mattis Is Out, Shutdown Is On (?)

28:54 | Dec 21st, 2018

In an emergency episode of the podcast, the crew discusses Defense Secretary Jim Mattis's departure and the looming government shutdown.
Should Democrats Play Dirty?

50:48 | Dec 17th, 2018

Democrats backed off a plan that would gerrymander New Jersey, while Republicans went ahead with a power grab in Wisconsin. The crew discusses why the parties play differently
The Brexit Episode

28:23 | Dec 13th, 2018

Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.
Trump's Turbulent Week

42:05 | Dec 10th, 2018

President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.
Something Is Fishy In North Carolina

54:10 | Dec 3rd, 2018

The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush's time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.
Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller

21:53 | Nov 29th, 2018

In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.
This Is Mueller Talk!

30:16 | Nov 29th, 2018

After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.
Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi?

52:45 | Nov 26th, 2018

The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.
Will Pelosi Be Replaced?

54:44 | Nov 19th, 2018

The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.
How Our Model Did

42:12 | Nov 15th, 2018

In this post-mortem episode of "Model Talk," Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.
A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft... Live!

52:15 | Nov 12th, 2018

Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.
Midterms Review

34:52 | Nov 8th, 2018

The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.
Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out

26:32 | Nov 7th, 2018

President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.
Election Night Wrap-Up: Write Your Own Narrative

30:34 | Nov 7th, 2018

Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what's next.
A Guide To Election Night

21:23 | Nov 6th, 2018

We walk you through the key races to watch, hour by hour, as the polls close on election night.
The Final Countdown

51:33 | Nov 5th, 2018

The crew reviews the forecasts and other indicators for a final time before Election Day. They also ask whether Trump's appeals on immigration will help Republicans.
How To Judge The Model's Performance

36:47 | Nov 2nd, 2018

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver explains how to judge the model's performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.
Debating Our Own House Forecast

22:39 | Nov 1st, 2018

We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our House forecast.
Debating Our Own Senate Forecast

31:45 | Oct 31st, 2018

We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our Senate forecast.
The Most Important Races You Aren't Watching

36:30 | Oct 30th, 2018

There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they'll play a big role in Americans' lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.
Do Toxic Politics Lead To Violence?

46:42 | Oct 29th, 2018

The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.
The Early Vote Is Not In The Model

32:10 | Oct 26th, 2018

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn't use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.
The Campaign Ads Dominating 2018

37:15 | Oct 25th, 2018

The parties are spending billions on advertising this cycle. The team looks at which topics are mentioned the most in order to understand the parties' priorities.
How Voting Laws Will Affect The Midterms

37:55 | Oct 23rd, 2018

New voting laws in Georgia and North Dakota are under the spotlight in the run up to Election Day. We discuss how those and other voting laws can affect elections.
These Fundraising Numbers Are Unprecedented

49:30 | Oct 22nd, 2018

House Democrats have about a two to one advantage over Republicans in individual contributions. The crew debates how to make sense of that historic advantage.
The Governors Forecast Is Live

37:41 | Oct 17th, 2018

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver discusses key races in the newly released governors forecast and answers listener questions.
Early Indicators Of Who Is Running In 2020

54:16 | Oct 15th, 2018

The team considers whether Democrats can perform well in the Midterms based on their advantages among women alone. The also look at early indicators of who is running in 2020.
The Forecasts Are Diverging

27:53 | Oct 11th, 2018

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains the hypotheses for why the House and Senate forecasts are diverging and answers questions from listeners.
Live: Are Any Of The Post-Kavanaugh Narratives Right?

58:10 | Oct 9th, 2018

At a live show in DC, the crew debates the political consequences of the Kavanaugh episode. They also weigh the importance of tipping point Senate races and play a game.
Collins Says Yes On Kavanaugh

27:44 | Oct 5th, 2018

The crew discusses how Brett Kavanaugh's all-but-certain confirmation to the Supreme Court might affect the midterms.
The Ultimate Romney-Clinton District

32:05 | Oct 3rd, 2018

Galen Druke heads to a traditionally Republican district in Houston, Texas that swung 23 points towards Hillary Clinton in 2016. The district is rated as a toss-up in 2018.
We Have New Polling On Kavanaugh

51:45 | Oct 1st, 2018

The first batch of polls is out since Judge Brett Kavanaugh's testimony last Thursday. The crew discusses how the public is reacting.
Flake News!

16:57 | Sep 28th, 2018

The podcast crew reacts to Senator Jeff Flake's call for an FBI investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh.
The Ford/Kavanaugh Testimony

36:28 | Sep 28th, 2018

The podcast team reacts to the Judiciary Committee testimony of Professor Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Fire Rosenstein? Withdraw Kavanaugh? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

1:00:44 | Sep 25th, 2018

In a special live taping of the podcast, the crew discusses the future of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
The Model Is 7,000 Lines Of Code

29:41 | Sep 20th, 2018

In this installment of Model Talk Nate discusses how unexpected events affect the model and answers listener questions about how long the model is and where it's stored.
Kavanaugh's Confirmation Is In Trouble

48:09 | Sep 17th, 2018

The crew discusses the political response to an accusation from a woman who says Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her in high school.
Emergency Podcast: Manafort Is Cooperating

33:05 | Sep 14th, 2018

President Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is cooperating with the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts to the news.
The Senate Forecast Is Live

30:22 | Sep 12th, 2018

In the latest installment of Model Talk, Nate discusses why the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast favors Republicans.
Stop Catering To Idiots

47:32 | Sep 10th, 2018

The crew reacts to the latest news about the inner workings of the Trump administration and explores the Upshot's foray into live polling.
How Useful Are SCOTUS Confirmation Hearings?

28:38 | Sep 7th, 2018

After three days of Supreme Court nomination hearings, Perry Bacon Jr. and Oliver Roeder discuss what, if anything, they learned.
Is The Path Of Trump's Presidency Set?

51:49 | Sep 3rd, 2018

The crew is using the Labor Day holiday to take a step back from the news of the moment and assess how President Trump is faring after more than a year and a half in office.
Debugging The Model

29:01 | Aug 30th, 2018

In this episode of Model Talk, Nate talks about debugging the model and answers questions from listeners, including one surprise listener by the name of Rush.
Impeachment: A FiveThirtyEight Debate

58:50 | Aug 27th, 2018

The crew discusses the legacy of Senator John McCain. They also debate how Democrats should approach the question of impeachment.
What Does It Mean To Be 'Electable'?

34:37 | Aug 23rd, 2018

Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari discuss what "electability" means and consider whether it's a useful term for assessing candidates.
Emergency Podcast: Cohen + Manafort = !!!

19:53 | Aug 21st, 2018

The podcast crew reacts to a guilty plea from Michael Cohen and a guilty verdict for Paul Manafort on the same day.
Democrats Are Competing Everywhere

45:38 | Aug 20th, 2018

The crew discusses their takeaways from the new 2018 House forecast. They also sort through new data on how Trump voters' views have evolved or not since 2016.
This Is Model Talk!

30:35 | Aug 16th, 2018

Now that the 2018 House forecast model is live, the podcast crew is resurrecting the "Model Talk" series. We are always eager to answer your questions, so send them our way.
Who Are Democrats Nominating?

43:02 | Aug 13th, 2018

The crew discusses which kinds of candidates are most likely to be nominated in Democratic primaries based on the results of every primary so far.
"You Can Go Low Sometimes"

47:38 | Aug 6th, 2018

The crew previews the last special election before the midterms and talks about how the news media should respond to Trump's attacks on the press.
Russia: A FiveThirtyEight Debate!

44:49 | Jul 30th, 2018

The crew debates the various theories about the connection between President Trump and Russia. We used this Lawfare article as a guide: https://tinyurl.com/yb5kzdvt
Democratic Socialists Are Here To Stay

50:12 | Jul 23rd, 2018

The team discusses the role of democratic socialism within the Democratic Party. They also take stock of the public's reaction to the Trump-Putin summit a week later.
Trump Meets Putin

41:13 | Jul 16th, 2018

The crew reacts to President Trump and Russian President Putin's joint press conference, in which Trump questioned U.S. intelligence on Russian meddling.
Emergency Podcast: It's A Mueller Friday

21:34 | Jul 13th, 2018

The crew reacts to the news that special counsel Robert Mueller has indicted 12 Russian intelligence agents.
The Politics Of Brett Kavanaugh

56:24 | Jul 10th, 2018

The team reacts to the news that Brett Kavanaugh is Trump's nominee to replace Kennedy on the Supreme Court and debates what could go wrong in the confirmation process.
What Comes Next For Partisan Gerrymandering?

32:37 | Jul 9th, 2018

A look at where the debate over partisan gerrymandering stands after a SCOTUS ruling and the news of Kennedy's retirement. This week's regular podcast is out Tuesday.
How Swingy Is Roberts?

46:37 | Jul 2nd, 2018

The team discusses the political jockeying underway over the nomination of a new Supreme Court justice. They also imagine a court with Roberts in the ideological middle.
The Upset Of The Season

23:01 | Jun 28th, 2018

In the heat of the news of Justice Kennedy's retirement, this podcast might have been lost forever. The team reacts to a major primary upset in New York's 14th district.
Emergency Podcast: Kennedy Is Retiring

25:36 | Jun 27th, 2018

The podcast team reacts to the news that Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring from the U.S. Supreme Court.
Is Immigration The Issue of 2018?

52:56 | Jun 25th, 2018

The team discusses the continuing fallout from Trump's policy of separating families that illegally cross the border. They also ask why there aren't more GOP women in Congress
Bonus Episode: Masculinity In 2018

42:57 | Jun 21st, 2018

FiveThirtyEight partnered with WNYC's Death, Sex & Money podcast to do a survey asking what men think about being a man in 2018.
The Immigration Flashpoint

53:38 | Jun 18th, 2018

The team discusses the separation of children and parents at the border and the role that immigration plays in the GOP. They also react to a SCOTUS decision on gerrymandering.
Emergency Podcast: The Inspector General's Report

20:23 | Jun 14th, 2018

Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. discuss the political implications of the inspector general's report on the 2016 FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton.
Trump Meets Kim

54:41 | Jun 11th, 2018

Trump is hours away from sitting down with Kim. The crew discusses what could happen and what on earth happened at the G7 summit over the weekend.
The Parties Decided Tuesday's Primaries

24:56 | Jun 6th, 2018

Around the country, establishment backed candidates did well in Tuesday's primaries. The crew reacts to the results and discusses the trends so far in the 2018 primaries.
The Super Tuesday Of The Midterms

42:05 | Jun 4th, 2018

Eight states are holding primary contests on Tuesday, including California, where the top two primary system could create some interesting results.
The Polls Are All Right

29:34 | May 31st, 2018

FiveThirtyEight has updated its pollster ratings for the first time since before the 2016 election. Nate and Galen discuss the state of polling and what to expect in 2018.
Things Look Less Good For Dems

47:44 | May 29th, 2018

Democrats' advantage in generic ballot polling has declined in recent months. The crew debates what that tells us about their prospects this fall.
A Year Of Mueller

49:02 | May 21st, 2018

The team takes stock of where the Mueller probe stands one year on. They also discuss Democrats' debate over reducing the role of superdelegates in presidential primaries.
A Democratic Squabble In Texas

28:38 | May 17th, 2018

Does the fault line in the Democratic Party really run through Texas's 7th district? Clare and Galen compare the candidates in what's become a contentious Democratic primary.
Partisanship Is A Hell Of A Drug

54:38 | May 14th, 2018

The team discusses partisanship in the first of a series of conversations about the midterms called "Priors." They also look at Americans' views of Trump's foreign policy.
Primary Season Begins

55:34 | May 7th, 2018

Tuesday is the fist big primary Election Day of the 2018 midterms. The team discusses the most important races to watch. They also debate whether Trump deserves more credit.
The Giuliani Rampage Podcast

36:43 | May 4th, 2018

President Trump's new lawyer Rudy Giuliani contradicted the president about payments to Stormy Daniels during a two-day long media rampage.
How Much Trouble Is Manchin In?

50:31 | Apr 30th, 2018

Joe Manchin is one of ten Democrats defending a Senate seat in a state Trump won. The team looks at the Republicans vying to challenge him in West Virginia.
About That Texas Poll

47:03 | Apr 23rd, 2018

The team debates whether the Texas Senate race is actually winnable for the Democrat. They also discuss the special election in Arizona and how to responsibly cover polls.
The Comey Episode

48:35 | Apr 16th, 2018

The crew debates the significance of former FBI Director James Comey's new tell-all book. They also look at public opinion of the recent U.S. airstrikes in Syria.
Emergency Podcast: Ryan To Retire

23:18 | Apr 11th, 2018

House Speaker Paul Ryan announced Wednesday morning that he will not seek reelection in 2018. Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari react to the news.
The Nightmare Midterms Hack

51:21 | Apr 10th, 2018

The team describes what a nightmare elections hack scenario would look like, based on reporting by Clare Malone. They also discuss the continuous scandals at the EPA.
Emergency Podcast: FBI Raids Trump's Lawyer's Office

18:30 | Apr 9th, 2018

The podcast crew responds to the news that the FBI raided the office and home of President Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen.
FiveThirtyEight Family Feud

55:03 | Apr 3rd, 2018

The team plays a round of "FiveThirtyEight Family Feud" to help determine Trump's strengths and weakness. They also debate the merits of census's new citizenship question.
Special: Cambridge Analytica, Facebook, and Political Data

31:31 | Mar 29th, 2018

Clare Malone and Jody Avirgan speak with Daniel Kreiss of UNC about the use of FB data in the 2016 election -- and beyond. Listen to the history of data and politics series here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/political-data
How Do We Cover Stormy Daniels?

54:22 | Mar 26th, 2018

The team debates how to cover the alleged coverup and affair between Stormy Daniels and President Trump. They also dive into new data showing Americans are as divided as ever.
What If Trump Fired Mueller?

53:53 | Mar 19th, 2018

President Trump tore into the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller this weekend. The team discusses what would happen if Trump fired Mueller.
The GOP Should Be Freaking Out, PA Edition

31:45 | Mar 14th, 2018

Democrat Conor Lamb looks poised to win in a Pennsylvania district that voted for Trump by 20 points. The podcast team discusses what the results mean for the midterms.
Emergency Podcast: Rexit

25:32 | Mar 13th, 2018

President Trump announced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's firing on twitter Tuesday morning. The podcast team reacts.
The Most Special Special Election Yet

48:58 | Mar 12th, 2018

The crew discusses the candidates and environment heading into Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district - a district that Trump won by 20 points.
Does Trump's Mood Matter?

55:36 | Mar 5th, 2018

The team makes sense of a week of chaos at the White House and what it says about Trump's decision making. They also discuss how academics rank presidential achievement.
A Turning Point On Guns?

51:35 | Feb 26th, 2018

The team discusses whether the high school shooting in Parkland, FL is a turning point in the gun debate. They also play a round of political "would you rather?"
The Gun Debate

50:05 | Feb 20th, 2018

This episode is dedicated entirely to discussing the gun debate. The crew looks at public opinion, political strategy and what is likely to happen next.
Emergency Podcast: 13 Russians Indicted

25:05 | Feb 16th, 2018

The team responds to news that 13 Russians and 3 companies have been indicted in the special counsel investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
What's So Wrong With Nancy Pelosi?

59:06 | Feb 12th, 2018

The crew debates why Nancy Pelosi is such a target for Republican attacks and whether those attacks will actually move voters.
Has Trump Remade The GOP?

44:10 | Feb 5th, 2018

The team debates whether the Nunes memo was much ado about nothing, and discusses Trump's effect on the Republican Party.
Which Version Of Trump's Presidency Is Happening?

45:25 | Jan 29th, 2018

One year in, the day before Trump's first (proper) State Of The Union address, we revisit the "14 Paths" and discuss what version of President Trump we ended up with.
The Three-Day Shutdown

52:20 | Jan 22nd, 2018

The Senate voted to end the shutdown less than three days after it began. Did Democrats get what they wanted? The team also discusses the uptick in Trump's approval rating.
Emergency Podcast - Government Shutdown

15:13 | Jan 19th, 2018

The politics team discusses the repercussions of the government shutdown after the Senate failed to pass a stopgap spending bill Friday night.
Immigration Showdown

54:13 | Jan 16th, 2018

With a government shutdown looming, Democrats and Republicans have hit an impasse over immigration policy. The crew discusses what's at stake.
The Gerrymandering Project: Conclusion

46:23 | Jan 11th, 2018

In the final episode of our gerrymandering series we consider some more radical electoral reforms and look back on the lessons we've learned.
Oprah, Palace Intrigue And Nuclear War

1:02:23 | Jan 8th, 2018

The crew discusses the possibility of an Oprah presidential run, a new book about the Trump White House and Trump's behavior towards North Korea.
The Gerrymandering Project: California

40:58 | Jan 4th, 2018

California took significant steps to try to rid redistricting of partisan politics. Politicians still sought to influence the process. Did they succeed?
Our Political Journalism Resolutions

39:56 | Jan 1st, 2018

2018 is here! We discuss our political reporting resolutions -- both for ourselves and the media in general -- as we head into a big new year.
Who's Running In 2020?

42:42 | Dec 25th, 2017

The crew throws caution to the wind and debates which Democrats are best positioned to do well in the 2020 presidential primary.
Lessons From Alabama

44:16 | Dec 18th, 2017

The politics team sorts through the hot takes from last week's Senate election in Alabama. They also discuss the political implications of the proposed GOP tax overhaul.
The Gerrymandering Project: North Carolina

43:12 | Dec 14th, 2017

A decades long debate has raged over how to ensure minorities have a voice in America. In the third installment of our series, we look at racial gerrymandering.
Emergency Podcast: Doug Jones Wins

30:26 | Dec 12th, 2017

Doug Jones became the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Alabama in a quarter century. The team discusses the factors that converged to make that possible.
The Alabama Election Is Here

52:35 | Dec 11th, 2017

The Alabama special Senate election is Tuesday. The polls have varied significantly in an election where turnout is hard to predict. The team weighs in on what to expect.
Are Taxes A Pyrrhic Victory?

53:40 | Dec 4th, 2017

The Senate passed a tax overhaul bill Friday night. The team weighs the political and policy implications and follow up on the fallout from Michael Flynn's guilty plea.
Emergency Podcast: Flynn Flips

15:33 | Dec 1st, 2017

A quick conversation in reaction the big news that Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about conversations with Russian officials.
Congress's Broken Culture

44:48 | Nov 27th, 2017

Lawmakers return to Washington under pressure to confront sexual harassment by their own ranks. The podcast team also looks at the latest in the Alabama special Senate race.
Alabama Is Tied

47:43 | Nov 20th, 2017

The Alabama special Senate race is now tied, after numerous accusation that Republican Roy Moore molested and assaulted teenage girls. The podcast team reacts.
Franken Is Accused Of Harassment

22:24 | Nov 16th, 2017

Leeann Tweeden accused Senator Al Franken of kissing and groping her without her consent while on a USO tour in the Middle East. The podcast team reacts.
Alabama's Senate Race

42:26 | Nov 13th, 2017

Five women have accused Roy Moore, Republican candidate for Senate from Alabama, of sexual misconduct. The team assesses how this will affect the final month of the campaign.
2016 Anniversary Talk

49:14 | Nov 8th, 2017

A year after the 2016 election, Nate & Micah sit down to discuss what it was like to cover the race - from the mistakes FiveThirtyEight made to the emotions of the final weeks
A Good Night For Democrats

19:22 | Nov 7th, 2017

The podcast team responds to strong showing by Democrats across the board on Election Day 2017
Election Day 2017

51:10 | Nov 6th, 2017

Will Democrats begin their comeback on Election Day 2017? The podcast team shares advice on which races to watch and what the margins mean.
Sexual Harassment In Media And Politics

32:21 | Nov 4th, 2017

Major figures in political journalism are alleged to have been serial sexual harassers. What does it mean to have those men in charge of the way political news gets made?
Mueller's First Strike

44:31 | Oct 30th, 2017

Ex-chairman of the Trump campaign Paul Manafort was indicted along with two other campaign aides as part of Bob Mueller's special investigation. The team weighs in.
Emergency Podcast - Flake Is Out

31:20 | Oct 24th, 2017

GOP Sen. Jeff Flake from Arizona, a repeated Trump critic, announced he will not seek reelection in 2018. The podcast team discusses what that means for Arizona and the GOP.
Could Alabama Go Blue?

48:25 | Oct 23rd, 2017

The 2017 elections are not far off. The team looks at the candidates and polling in the Virginia governor's race and Alabama's special Senate race.
Steve Bannon's War

47:07 | Oct 16th, 2017

Steve Bannon declared "war" on the GOP establishment at the Values Voter Summit last week. The podcast team discusses what that will mean for the 2018 midterms.
Corker Uncorked

51:02 | Oct 9th, 2017

GOP Senator Corker and President Trump went at each other over the weekend. The podcast weighs in on how Corker's criticism of Trump could affect GOP politics.
Trump's Response To Maria

49:38 | Oct 2nd, 2017

The Trump administration is facing multiple crises: a mass shooting in Las Vegas, Puerto Rico recovering from hurricane Maria and rising tensions with North Korea.
Is Partisan Gerrymandering Illegal?

34:59 | Sep 28th, 2017

The Supreme Court is hearing a partisan gerrymandering case that could reshape how our democracy works. FiveThirtyEight brings you a deep dive into what is at stake.
Trump vs. The NFL

56:06 | Sep 25th, 2017

Over the weekend, President Trump targeted the NFL for player protests and was rebuked by owners, players and the players union. The podcast team weighs in.
Emergency Podcast: McCain Is A No

14:07 | Sep 22nd, 2017

Sen. McCain is a no on the latest ACA repeal effort. The team debates what comes next.
Democrats Divided

54:28 | Sep 18th, 2017

As the Democratic Party increasingly embraces single payer healthcare and Clinton weighs in on her primary race against Sanders, the team discusses where the party is headed.
What Happened

56:59 | Sep 11th, 2017

Hillary Clinton is releasing a book this week chronicling what went wrong during her 2016 campaign from her perspective. The podcast team sizes up her assessment.
Immigration Politics

46:35 | Sep 5th, 2017

The White House has decided to end the DACA program. The podcast team weighs in on how voters view DACA and what Congress's options are for replacing it.
Harvey Tests Trump

57:28 | Aug 28th, 2017

Amid historic flooding in East Texas, the team talks about the political challenges natural disasters can pose to local officials, governors and the president.
How Trump Talks About Race

49:38 | Aug 21st, 2017

The team talks to political science professor Vincent Hutchings about the way Donald Trump spoke about race in the aftermath of Charlottesville.
Emergency Podcast - Bannon Out

16:49 | Aug 18th, 2017

In this emergency podcast, the team talks about what Steve Bannon's departure from the White House means for the people who remain.
Trump's Response To Charlottesville

56:49 | Aug 14th, 2017

President Trump did not condemn white supremacy by name in his initial response to the violence in Charlottesville. The team discusses the reasons and repercussions.
Enter The Grand Jury

46:49 | Aug 7th, 2017

The team weighs the significance of Bob Mueller empaneling a grand jury in the Russia investigation. They also look at persisting rifts in the Democratic Party.
Special Presentation: 30 for 30 Podcasts

17:02 | Aug 5th, 2017

A break from politics with an excerpt of a new audio documentary from 30 for 30 Podcasts, which our very own Jody Avirgan heads up. We present "The Fighter Inside," reported by Andrew Mambo. More at 30for30podcasts.com
Emergency Podcast - Senate Repeal Fails

23:54 | Jul 28th, 2017

The podcast team breaks down the final votes and weighs who is most responsible for the Republican failure: Trump, McConnell or Ryan.
The GOP's Last(?) Ditch Health Care Push

40:48 | Jul 24th, 2017

The podcast team considers the options for Senate Republicans as they face a last ditch effort to repeal the ACA. Plus, how different would a Clinton presidency have been?
Six Months In

44:15 | Jul 17th, 2017

The podcast team digests the Senate's latest health care bill and debates which path Trump's presidency is on six months in.
Emergency Podcast - Don Jr.'s Emails

25:33 | Jul 13th, 2017

The podcast team reacts to emails in which Donald Trump Jr. accepts a meeting with a Kremlin-linked lawyer offering dirt on Hillary Clinton.
Why Trump Wants Voter Data

48:09 | Jul 10th, 2017

The crew discusses the Trump administration's request for voter data and why states are pushing back. Plus, with another good jobs report, can Trump claim to own the economy?
Trump Goes Global

38:39 | Jul 6th, 2017

Ahead of the G20 summit, the podcast team looks at changes in global perceptions of American leadership since Trump took office.
The Health Care Episode

50:13 | Jun 26th, 2017

The podcast team discusses the policies in the Senate GOP health care bill and debates whether it's likely to pass.
Emergency Podcast - Georgia And South Carolina Specials

29:15 | Jun 20th, 2017

The podcast team responds to the results of the special elections in Georgia's 6th district and South Carolina's 5th district.
The Most Special Special Election

50:32 | Jun 19th, 2017

The special election in Georgia's 6th district has become the most expensive House election in American history. The podcast team debates how much it matters.
Trump Under Investigation

19:12 | Jun 15th, 2017

The podcast team responds to new reports that President Trump is under FBI investigation for obstruction of justice.
The Base

50:55 | Jun 12th, 2017

The podcast team debates who actually makes up the base in each party and what role they will play in upcoming elections.
Emergency Podcast - Hung Parliament

27:48 | Jun 9th, 2017

No party won a majority in the U.K. election, resulting in a hung parliament. The podcast team reacts.
Emergency Podcast - Comey's Testimony

28:32 | Jun 8th, 2017

The podcast team reacts to former FBI Director James Comey's testimony about the events that lead up to his firing by President Trump.
Emergency Podcast - Comey's Prepared Testimony

22:42 | Jun 7th, 2017

The podcast team discusses former FBI Director James Comey's prepared testimony to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Pittsburgh vs. Paris

49:01 | Jun 5th, 2017

The podcast team debates the political savvy of Trump's exit from the Paris climate agreement. Nate takes a look at what's going on in the crazy world of UK elections polls.
Do Democrats Need A Win?

53:35 | May 30th, 2017

The podcast team debates whether a Democratic loss in Montana's special election means challenges ahead for the party. They also parse smoke from fire in the Russia scandal.
What Now?

52:04 | May 22nd, 2017

After the appointment of a special counsel to investigate possible ties between Trump's campaign and Russia, can the White House return to business as usual?
Emergency Podcast - The Comey Memo

24:34 | May 17th, 2017

The podcast crew assesses the fallout from reports of a memo by former FBI Director Comey in which he detailed conversations with President Trump.
The Scandal Meter

46:46 | May 15th, 2017

The podcast team sizes up how big of a scandal Comey's firing actually is. They also discuss how the census director's departure could affect the upcoming census.
Emergency Podcast: Trump Fires Comey

13:11 | May 9th, 2017

News broke late on Tuesday that President Trump fired FBI Director James Comey. We hop in the studio to discuss.
Health Care Winners And Losers

48:52 | May 8th, 2017

The podcast team talks to Anna Barry-Jester about how the GOP health care bill will affect real people. They also discuss the sizable polling miss in the French election.
Emergency Health Care Podcast II

32:12 | May 5th, 2017

The podcast team talks about the political implications of the AHCA health care bill passing the House.
99 Trial Balloons

45:57 | May 1st, 2017

The podcast team makes sense of Trump's one page tax plan with Ben Casselman. They also debate how the media has performed 100 days into the Trump presidency.
100 Days

52:58 | Apr 24th, 2017

The team assesses Trump's legislative agenda as he ends his first 100 days. They also discuss the Earth Day protests and gauge populism's appeal after the French election.
Georgia's 6th - Live From New York

1:07:16 | Apr 19th, 2017

The podcast team responds to GA-6 results live from the Comedy Cellar in New York. They also discuss upcoming European elections, play trivia and answer audience questions.
Trump's Paths, Revisited

48:42 | Apr 17th, 2017

The podcast team assesses the special elections in Kansas and Georgia and takes stock of President Trump's governing style as his administration approaches 100 days.
The Trump Doctrine (Maybe?)

46:44 | Apr 10th, 2017

The podcast team talks about Trump's decision to authorize airstrikes against Assad's regime in Syria and tracks who in Trump's circle is gaining and losing influence.
Sparks: Why Health Care Costs So Much

50:06 | Apr 8th, 2017

Our science team discusses Elizabeth Rosenthal's "An American Sickness." To catch part two, subscribe to What's The Point in iTunes or fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts